Methodology
Consumer inflation — official vs SGS replication
Year-over-year change, CPI-U (NSA)
Official CPI-USGS 1980-base
Data table
| Date | Official CPI-U | SGS 1980-base |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 3.5% | 12.4% |
| 2026-05 | 4.2% | 13.1% |
| 2026-04 | 3.8% | 12.7% |
| 2026-03 | 3.3% | 12.1% |
| 2026-02 | 2.4% | 11.3% |
| 2026-01 | 2.4% | 11.2% |
| 2025-12 | 2.7% | 11.5% |
| 2025-11 | 2.7% | 11.6% |
| 2025-09 | 3.0% | 11.8% |
| 2025-08 | 2.9% | 11.7% |
| 2025-07 | 2.7% | 11.5% |
| 2025-06 | 2.7% | 11.5% |
| 2025-05 | 2.4% | 11.2% |
| 2025-04 | 2.3% | 11.1% |
| 2025-03 | 2.4% | 11.2% |
| 2025-02 | 2.8% | 11.6% |
| 2025-01 | 3.0% | 11.8% |
| 2024-12 | 2.9% | 11.7% |
| 2024-11 | 2.7% | 11.5% |
| 2024-10 | 2.6% | 11.4% |
| 2024-09 | 2.4% | 11.2% |
| 2024-08 | 2.5% | 11.3% |
| 2024-07 | 2.9% | 11.6% |
| 2024-06 | 3.0% | 11.7% |
| 2024-05 | 3.3% | 12.0% |
| 2024-04 | 3.4% | 12.1% |
| 2024-03 | 3.5% | 12.2% |
| 2024-02 | 3.2% | 11.9% |
| 2024-01 | 3.1% | 11.8% |
| 2023-12 | 3.4% | 12.1% |
| 2023-11 | 3.1% | 11.8% |
| 2023-10 | 3.2% | 11.9% |
| 2023-09 | 3.7% | 12.4% |
| 2023-08 | 3.7% | 12.3% |
| 2023-07 | 3.2% | 11.9% |
| 2023-06 | 3.0% | 11.6% |
| 2023-05 | 4.0% | 12.7% |
| 2023-04 | 4.9% | 13.6% |
| 2023-03 | 5.0% | 13.6% |
| 2023-02 | 6.0% | 14.7% |
| 2023-01 | 6.4% | 15.1% |
| 2022-12 | 6.5% | 15.1% |
| 2022-11 | 7.1% | 15.7% |
| 2022-10 | 7.7% | 16.4% |
| 2022-09 | 8.2% | 16.8% |
| 2022-08 | 8.3% | 16.9% |
| 2022-07 | 8.5% | 17.1% |
| 2022-06 | 9.1% | 17.7% |
| 2022-05 | 8.6% | 17.2% |
| 2022-04 | 8.3% | 16.8% |
| 2022-03 | 8.5% | 17.1% |
| 2022-02 | 7.9% | 16.4% |
| 2022-01 | 7.5% | 16.1% |
| 2021-12 | 7.0% | 15.6% |
| 2021-11 | 6.8% | 15.4% |
| 2021-10 | 6.2% | 14.8% |
| 2021-09 | 5.4% | 13.9% |
| 2021-08 | 5.3% | 13.8% |
| 2021-07 | 5.4% | 13.9% |
| 2021-06 | 5.4% | 13.9% |
| 2021-05 | 5.0% | 13.5% |
| 2021-04 | 4.2% | 12.7% |
| 2021-03 | 2.6% | 11.1% |
| 2021-02 | 1.7% | 10.2% |
| 2021-01 | 1.4% | 9.9% |
| 2020-12 | 1.4% | 9.9% |
| 2020-11 | 1.2% | 9.7% |
| 2020-10 | 1.2% | 9.7% |
| 2020-09 | 1.4% | 9.8% |
| 2020-08 | 1.3% | 9.8% |
| 2020-07 | 1.0% | 9.5% |
| 2020-06 | 0.6% | 9.1% |
| 2020-05 | 0.1% | 8.6% |
| 2020-04 | 0.3% | 8.8% |
| 2020-03 | 1.5% | 10.0% |
| 2020-02 | 2.3% | 10.8% |
| 2020-01 | 2.5% | 10.9% |
| 2019-12 | 2.3% | 10.7% |
| 2019-11 | 2.1% | 10.5% |
| 2019-10 | 1.8% | 10.2% |
| 2019-09 | 1.7% | 10.1% |
| 2019-08 | 1.7% | 10.1% |
| 2019-07 | 1.8% | 10.2% |
| 2019-06 | 1.6% | 10.0% |
| 2019-05 | 1.8% | 10.2% |
| 2019-04 | 2.0% | 10.4% |
| 2019-03 | 1.9% | 10.2% |
| 2019-02 | 1.5% | 9.9% |
| 2019-01 | 1.6% | 9.9% |
| 2018-12 | 1.9% | 10.3% |
| 2018-11 | 2.2% | 10.5% |
| 2018-10 | 2.5% | 10.9% |
| 2018-09 | 2.3% | 10.6% |
| 2018-08 | 2.7% | 11.0% |
| 2018-07 | 2.9% | 11.3% |
| 2018-06 | 2.9% | 11.2% |
| 2018-05 | 2.8% | 11.1% |
| 2018-04 | 2.5% | 10.8% |
| 2018-03 | 2.4% | 10.7% |
| 2018-02 | 2.2% | 10.5% |
| 2018-01 | 2.1% | 10.4% |
| 2017-12 | 2.1% | 10.4% |
| 2017-11 | 2.2% | 10.5% |
| 2017-10 | 2.0% | 10.3% |
| 2017-09 | 2.2% | 10.5% |
| 2017-08 | 1.9% | 10.2% |
| 2017-07 | 1.7% | 10.0% |
| 2017-06 | 1.6% | 9.9% |
| 2017-05 | 1.9% | 10.1% |
| 2017-04 | 2.2% | 10.4% |
| 2017-03 | 2.4% | 10.6% |
| 2017-02 | 2.7% | 11.0% |
| 2017-01 | 2.5% | 10.7% |
| 2016-12 | 2.1% | 10.3% |
| 2016-11 | 1.7% | 9.9% |
| 2016-10 | 1.6% | 9.8% |
| 2016-09 | 1.5% | 9.7% |
| 2016-08 | 1.1% | 9.2% |
| 2016-07 | 0.8% | 9.0% |
| 2016-06 | 1.0% | 9.2% |
| 2016-05 | 1.0% | 9.2% |
| 2016-04 | 1.1% | 9.3% |
| 2016-03 | 0.9% | 9.0% |
| 2016-02 | 1.0% | 9.2% |
| 2016-01 | 1.4% | 9.5% |
| 2015-12 | 0.7% | 8.9% |
| 2015-11 | 0.5% | 8.6% |
| 2015-10 | 0.2% | 8.3% |
| 2015-09 | -0.0% | 8.1% |
| 2015-08 | 0.2% | 8.3% |
| 2015-07 | 0.2% | 8.3% |
| 2015-06 | 0.1% | 8.2% |
| 2015-05 | -0.0% | 8.1% |
| 2015-04 | -0.2% | 7.9% |
| 2015-03 | -0.1% | 8.0% |
| 2015-02 | -0.0% | 8.1% |
| 2015-01 | -0.1% | 8.0% |
| 2014-12 | 0.8% | 8.8% |
| 2014-11 | 1.3% | 9.4% |
| 2014-10 | 1.7% | 9.7% |
| 2014-09 | 1.7% | 9.7% |
| 2014-08 | 1.7% | 9.7% |
| 2014-07 | 2.0% | 10.0% |
| 2014-06 | 2.1% | 10.1% |
| 2014-05 | 2.1% | 10.2% |
| 2014-04 | 2.0% | 10.0% |
| 2014-03 | 1.5% | 9.5% |
| 2014-02 | 1.1% | 9.1% |
| 2014-01 | 1.6% | 9.6% |
| 2013-12 | 1.5% | 9.5% |
| 2013-11 | 1.2% | 9.2% |
| 2013-10 | 1.0% | 8.9% |
| 2013-09 | 1.2% | 9.2% |
| 2013-08 | 1.5% | 9.5% |
| 2013-07 | 2.0% | 9.9% |
| 2013-06 | 1.8% | 9.7% |
| 2013-05 | 1.4% | 9.3% |
| 2013-04 | 1.1% | 9.0% |
| 2013-03 | 1.5% | 9.4% |
| 2013-02 | 2.0% | 9.9% |
| 2013-01 | 1.6% | 9.5% |
| 2012-12 | 1.7% | 9.7% |
| 2012-11 | 1.8% | 9.7% |
| 2012-10 | 2.2% | 10.1% |
| 2012-09 | 2.0% | 9.9% |
| 2012-08 | 1.7% | 9.6% |
| 2012-07 | 1.4% | 9.3% |
| 2012-06 | 1.7% | 9.6% |
| 2012-05 | 1.7% | 9.6% |
| 2012-04 | 2.3% | 10.2% |
| 2012-03 | 2.7% | 10.5% |
| 2012-02 | 2.9% | 10.7% |
| 2012-01 | 2.9% | 10.8% |
| 2011-12 | 3.0% | 10.8% |
| 2011-11 | 3.4% | 11.2% |
| 2011-10 | 3.5% | 11.4% |
| 2011-09 | 3.9% | 11.7% |
| 2011-08 | 3.8% | 11.6% |
| 2011-07 | 3.6% | 11.5% |
| 2011-06 | 3.6% | 11.4% |
| 2011-05 | 3.6% | 11.4% |
| 2011-04 | 3.2% | 11.0% |
| 2011-03 | 2.7% | 10.5% |
| 2011-02 | 2.1% | 9.9% |
| 2011-01 | 1.6% | 9.4% |
| 2010-12 | 1.5% | 9.3% |
| 2010-11 | 1.1% | 8.9% |
| 2010-10 | 1.2% | 8.9% |
| 2010-09 | 1.1% | 8.9% |
| 2010-08 | 1.1% | 8.9% |
| 2010-07 | 1.2% | 9.0% |
| 2010-06 | 1.1% | 8.8% |
| 2010-05 | 2.0% | 9.8% |
| 2010-04 | 2.2% | 10.0% |
| 2010-03 | 2.3% | 10.0% |
| 2010-02 | 2.1% | 9.9% |
| 2010-01 | 2.6% | 10.3% |
| 2009-12 | 2.7% | 10.4% |
| 2009-11 | 1.8% | 9.5% |
| 2009-10 | -0.2% | 7.5% |
| 2009-09 | -1.3% | 6.4% |
| 2009-08 | -1.5% | 6.2% |
| 2009-07 | -2.1% | 5.6% |
| 2009-06 | -1.4% | 6.2% |
| 2009-05 | -1.3% | 6.4% |
| 2009-04 | -0.7% | 6.9% |
| 2009-03 | -0.4% | 7.3% |
| 2009-02 | 0.2% | 7.9% |
| 2009-01 | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| 2008-12 | 0.1% | 7.7% |
| 2008-11 | 1.1% | 8.7% |
| 2008-10 | 3.7% | 11.3% |
| 2008-09 | 4.9% | 12.6% |
| 2008-08 | 5.4% | 13.0% |
| 2008-07 | 5.6% | 13.2% |
| 2008-06 | 5.0% | 12.6% |
| 2008-05 | 4.2% | 11.8% |
| 2008-04 | 3.9% | 11.5% |
| 2008-03 | 4.0% | 11.6% |
| 2008-02 | 4.0% | 11.6% |
| 2008-01 | 4.3% | 11.9% |
| 2007-12 | 4.1% | 11.6% |
| 2007-11 | 4.3% | 11.9% |
| 2007-10 | 3.5% | 11.1% |
| 2007-09 | 2.8% | 10.3% |
| 2007-08 | 2.0% | 9.5% |
| 2007-07 | 2.4% | 9.9% |
| 2007-06 | 2.7% | 10.2% |
| 2007-05 | 2.7% | 10.2% |
| 2007-04 | 2.6% | 10.1% |
| 2007-03 | 2.8% | 10.3% |
| 2007-02 | 2.4% | 9.9% |
| 2007-01 | 2.1% | 9.6% |
| 2006-12 | 2.5% | 10.0% |
| 2006-11 | 2.0% | 9.5% |
| 2006-10 | 1.3% | 8.8% |
| 2006-09 | 2.1% | 9.5% |
| 2006-08 | 3.8% | 11.3% |
| 2006-07 | 4.1% | 11.6% |
| 2006-06 | 4.3% | 11.8% |
| 2006-05 | 4.2% | 11.6% |
| 2006-04 | 3.5% | 11.0% |
| 2006-03 | 3.4% | 10.8% |
| 2006-02 | 3.6% | 11.0% |
| 2006-01 | 4.0% | 11.4% |
| 2005-12 | 3.4% | 10.8% |
| 2005-11 | 3.5% | 10.9% |
| 2005-10 | 4.3% | 11.8% |
| 2005-09 | 4.7% | 12.1% |
| 2005-08 | 3.6% | 11.0% |
| 2005-07 | 3.2% | 10.6% |
| 2005-06 | 2.5% | 9.9% |
| 2005-05 | 2.8% | 10.2% |
| 2005-04 | 3.5% | 10.9% |
| 2005-03 | 3.1% | 10.5% |
| 2005-02 | 3.0% | 10.4% |
| 2005-01 | 3.0% | 10.3% |
| 2004-12 | 3.3% | 10.6% |
| 2004-11 | 3.5% | 10.9% |
| 2004-10 | 3.2% | 10.5% |
| 2004-09 | 2.5% | 9.9% |
| 2004-08 | 2.7% | 10.0% |
| 2004-07 | 3.0% | 10.3% |
| 2004-06 | 3.3% | 10.6% |
| 2004-05 | 3.1% | 10.4% |
| 2004-04 | 2.3% | 9.6% |
| 2004-03 | 1.7% | 9.0% |
| 2004-02 | 1.7% | 9.0% |
| 2004-01 | 1.9% | 9.2% |
| 2003-12 | 1.9% | 9.2% |
| 2003-11 | 1.8% | 9.0% |
| 2003-10 | 2.0% | 9.3% |
| 2003-09 | 2.3% | 9.6% |
| 2003-08 | 2.2% | 9.4% |
| 2003-07 | 2.1% | 9.4% |
| 2003-06 | 2.1% | 9.4% |
| 2003-05 | 2.1% | 9.3% |
| 2003-04 | 2.2% | 9.5% |
| 2003-03 | 3.0% | 10.2% |
| 2003-02 | 3.0% | 10.2% |
| 2003-01 | 2.6% | 9.8% |
| 2002-12 | 2.4% | 9.6% |
| 2002-11 | 2.2% | 9.4% |
| 2002-10 | 2.0% | 9.2% |
| 2002-09 | 1.5% | 8.7% |
| 2002-08 | 1.8% | 9.0% |
| 2002-07 | 1.5% | 8.6% |
| 2002-06 | 1.1% | 8.2% |
| 2002-05 | 1.2% | 8.3% |
| 2002-04 | 1.6% | 8.8% |
| 2002-03 | 1.5% | 8.6% |
| 2002-02 | 1.1% | 8.3% |
| 2002-01 | 1.1% | 8.3% |
| 2001-12 | 1.6% | 8.7% |
| 2001-11 | 1.9% | 9.0% |
| 2001-10 | 2.1% | 9.3% |
| 2001-09 | 2.6% | 9.8% |
| 2001-08 | 2.7% | 9.8% |
| 2001-07 | 2.7% | 9.8% |
| 2001-06 | 3.2% | 10.3% |
| 2001-05 | 3.6% | 10.7% |
| 2001-04 | 3.3% | 10.4% |
| 2001-03 | 2.9% | 10.0% |
| 2001-02 | 3.5% | 10.6% |
| 2001-01 | 3.7% | 10.8% |
| 2000-12 | 3.4% | 10.5% |
| 2000-11 | 3.4% | 10.5% |
| 2000-10 | 3.4% | 10.5% |
| 2000-09 | 3.5% | 10.5% |
| 2000-08 | 3.4% | 10.5% |
| 2000-07 | 3.7% | 10.7% |
| 2000-06 | 3.7% | 10.8% |
| 2000-05 | 3.2% | 10.2% |
| 2000-04 | 3.1% | 10.1% |
| 2000-03 | 3.8% | 10.8% |
| 2000-02 | 3.2% | 10.2% |
| 2000-01 | 2.7% | 9.7% |
| 1999-12 | 2.7% | 9.7% |
| 1999-11 | 2.6% | 9.6% |
| 1999-10 | 2.6% | 9.5% |
| 1999-09 | 2.6% | 9.5% |
| 1999-08 | 2.3% | 9.1% |
| 1999-07 | 2.1% | 9.0% |
| 1999-06 | 2.0% | 8.8% |
| 1999-05 | 2.1% | 8.9% |
| 1999-04 | 2.3% | 9.0% |
| 1999-03 | 1.7% | 8.4% |
| 1999-02 | 1.6% | 8.3% |
| 1999-01 | 1.7% | 8.3% |
| 1998-12 | 1.6% | 8.2% |
| 1998-11 | 1.5% | 8.1% |
| 1998-10 | 1.5% | 8.0% |
| 1998-09 | 1.5% | 8.0% |
| 1998-08 | 1.6% | 8.1% |
| 1998-07 | 1.7% | 8.2% |
| 1998-06 | 1.7% | 8.1% |
| 1998-05 | 1.7% | 8.1% |
| 1998-04 | 1.4% | 7.8% |
| 1998-03 | 1.4% | 7.7% |
| 1998-02 | 1.4% | 7.8% |
| 1998-01 | 1.6% | 7.9% |
| 1997-12 | 1.7% | 8.0% |
| 1997-11 | 1.8% | 8.1% |
| 1997-10 | 2.1% | 8.3% |
| 1997-09 | 2.2% | 8.3% |
| 1997-08 | 2.2% | 8.4% |
| 1997-07 | 2.2% | 8.4% |
| 1997-06 | 2.3% | 8.4% |
| 1997-05 | 2.2% | 8.3% |
| 1997-04 | 2.5% | 8.5% |
| 1997-03 | 2.8% | 8.8% |
| 1997-02 | 3.0% | 9.0% |
| 1997-01 | 3.0% | 9.0% |
| 1996-12 | 3.3% | 9.2% |
| 1996-11 | 3.3% | 9.1% |
| 1996-10 | 3.0% | 8.9% |
| 1996-09 | 3.0% | 8.8% |
| 1996-08 | 2.9% | 8.7% |
| 1996-07 | 3.0% | 8.7% |
| 1996-06 | 2.8% | 8.5% |
| 1996-05 | 2.9% | 8.6% |
| 1996-04 | 2.9% | 8.6% |
| 1996-03 | 2.8% | 8.5% |
| 1996-02 | 2.7% | 8.3% |
| 1996-01 | 2.7% | 8.3% |
| 1995-12 | 2.5% | 8.1% |
| 1995-11 | 2.6% | 8.1% |
| 1995-10 | 2.8% | 8.3% |
| 1995-09 | 2.5% | 8.0% |
| 1995-08 | 2.6% | 8.1% |
| 1995-07 | 2.8% | 8.2% |
| 1995-06 | 3.0% | 8.4% |
| 1995-05 | 3.2% | 8.6% |
| 1995-04 | 3.1% | 8.4% |
| 1995-03 | 2.9% | 8.2% |
| 1995-02 | 2.9% | 8.1% |
| 1995-01 | 2.8% | 8.1% |
| 1994-12 | 2.7% | 7.9% |
| 1994-11 | 2.7% | 7.9% |
| 1994-10 | 2.6% | 7.8% |
| 1994-09 | 3.0% | 8.1% |
| 1994-08 | 2.9% | 8.0% |
| 1994-07 | 2.8% | 7.8% |
| 1994-06 | 2.5% | 7.5% |
| 1994-05 | 2.3% | 7.3% |
| 1994-04 | 2.4% | 7.3% |
| 1994-03 | 2.5% | 7.5% |
| 1994-02 | 2.5% | 7.4% |
| 1994-01 | 2.5% | 7.4% |
| 1993-12 | 2.7% | 7.6% |
| 1993-11 | 2.7% | 7.5% |
| 1993-10 | 2.8% | 7.6% |
| 1993-09 | 2.7% | 7.5% |
| 1993-08 | 2.8% | 7.5% |
| 1993-07 | 2.8% | 7.5% |
| 1993-06 | 3.0% | 7.7% |
| 1993-05 | 3.2% | 7.9% |
| 1993-04 | 3.2% | 7.9% |
| 1993-03 | 3.1% | 7.7% |
| 1993-02 | 3.2% | 7.8% |
| 1993-01 | 3.3% | 7.8% |
| 1992-12 | 2.9% | 7.4% |
| 1992-11 | 3.0% | 7.5% |
| 1992-10 | 3.2% | 7.7% |
| 1992-09 | 3.0% | 7.4% |
| 1992-08 | 3.1% | 7.6% |
| 1992-07 | 3.2% | 7.5% |
| 1992-06 | 3.1% | 7.4% |
| 1992-05 | 3.0% | 7.3% |
| 1992-04 | 3.2% | 7.5% |
| 1992-03 | 3.2% | 7.4% |
| 1992-02 | 2.8% | 7.0% |
| 1992-01 | 2.6% | 6.8% |
| 1991-12 | 3.1% | 7.2% |
| 1991-11 | 3.0% | 7.1% |
| 1991-10 | 2.9% | 7.0% |
| 1991-09 | 3.4% | 7.5% |
| 1991-08 | 3.8% | 7.9% |
| 1991-07 | 4.4% | 8.5% |
| 1991-06 | 4.7% | 8.7% |
| 1991-05 | 5.0% | 8.9% |
| 1991-04 | 4.9% | 8.8% |
| 1991-03 | 4.9% | 8.8% |
| 1991-02 | 5.3% | 9.2% |
| 1991-01 | 5.7% | 9.5% |
| 1990-12 | 6.1% | 9.9% |
| 1990-11 | 6.3% | 10.1% |
| 1990-10 | 6.3% | 10.1% |
| 1990-09 | 6.2% | 9.9% |
| 1990-08 | 5.6% | 9.3% |
| 1990-07 | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| 1990-06 | 4.7% | 8.3% |
| 1990-05 | 4.4% | 8.0% |
| 1990-04 | 4.7% | 8.3% |
| 1990-03 | 5.2% | 8.8% |
| 1990-02 | 5.3% | 8.8% |
| 1990-01 | 5.2% | 8.7% |
| 1989-12 | 4.6% | 8.1% |
| 1989-11 | 4.7% | 8.1% |
| 1989-10 | 4.5% | 7.9% |
| 1989-09 | 4.3% | 7.7% |
| 1989-08 | 4.7% | 8.1% |
| 1989-07 | 5.0% | 8.3% |
| 1989-06 | 5.2% | 8.5% |
| 1989-05 | 5.4% | 8.6% |
| 1989-04 | 5.1% | 8.4% |
| 1989-03 | 5.0% | 8.2% |
| 1989-02 | 4.8% | 8.0% |
| 1989-01 | 4.7% | 7.8% |
| 1988-12 | 4.4% | 7.5% |
| 1988-11 | 4.2% | 7.3% |
| 1988-10 | 4.2% | 7.3% |
| 1988-09 | 4.2% | 7.2% |
| 1988-08 | 4.0% | 7.0% |
| 1988-07 | 4.1% | 7.1% |
| 1988-06 | 4.0% | 6.9% |
| 1988-05 | 3.9% | 6.8% |
| 1988-04 | 3.9% | 6.8% |
| 1988-03 | 3.9% | 6.8% |
| 1988-02 | 3.9% | 6.8% |
| 1988-01 | 4.0% | 6.8% |
| 1987-12 | 4.4% | 7.2% |
| 1987-11 | 4.5% | 7.3% |
| 1987-10 | 4.5% | 7.2% |
| 1987-09 | 4.4% | 7.0% |
| 1987-08 | 4.3% | 6.9% |
| 1987-07 | 3.9% | 6.6% |
| 1987-06 | 3.7% | 6.2% |
| 1987-05 | 3.9% | 6.4% |
| 1987-04 | 3.8% | 6.3% |
| 1987-03 | 3.0% | 5.5% |
| 1987-02 | 2.1% | 4.6% |
| 1987-01 | 1.5% | 3.9% |
| 1986-12 | 1.1% | 3.5% |
| 1986-11 | 1.3% | 3.7% |
| 1986-10 | 1.5% | 3.8% |
| 1986-09 | 1.8% | 4.1% |
| 1986-08 | 1.6% | 3.9% |
| 1986-07 | 1.6% | 3.9% |
| 1986-06 | 1.8% | 4.0% |
| 1986-05 | 1.5% | 3.7% |
| 1986-04 | 1.6% | 3.8% |
| 1986-03 | 2.3% | 4.4% |
| 1986-02 | 3.1% | 5.2% |
| 1986-01 | 3.9% | 6.0% |
| 1985-12 | 3.8% | 5.9% |
| 1985-11 | 3.5% | 5.6% |
| 1985-10 | 3.2% | 5.2% |
| 1985-09 | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| 1985-08 | 3.3% | 5.3% |
| 1985-07 | 3.6% | 5.5% |
| 1985-06 | 3.8% | 5.7% |
| 1985-05 | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| 1985-04 | 3.7% | 5.5% |
| 1985-03 | 3.7% | 5.5% |
| 1985-02 | 3.5% | 5.3% |
| 1985-01 | 3.5% | 5.3% |
| 1984-12 | 3.9% | 5.7% |
| 1984-11 | 4.1% | 5.7% |
| 1984-10 | 4.3% | 5.9% |
| 1984-09 | 4.3% | 5.9% |
| 1984-08 | 4.3% | 5.9% |
| 1984-07 | 4.2% | 5.8% |
| 1984-06 | 4.2% | 5.8% |
| 1984-05 | 4.2% | 5.8% |
| 1984-04 | 4.6% | 6.1% |
| 1984-03 | 4.8% | 6.3% |
| 1984-02 | 4.6% | 6.0% |
| 1984-01 | 4.2% | 5.6% |
| 1983-12 | 3.8% | 5.2% |
| 1983-11 | 3.3% | 4.6% |
| 1983-10 | 2.9% | 4.2% |
| 1983-09 | 2.9% | 4.1% |
| 1983-08 | 2.6% | 3.8% |
| 1983-07 | 2.5% | 3.7% |
| 1983-06 | 2.6% | 3.8% |
| 1983-05 | 3.5% | 4.7% |
| 1983-04 | 3.9% | 5.0% |
| 1983-03 | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| 1983-02 | 3.5% | 4.6% |
| 1983-01 | 3.7% | 4.8% |
| 1982-12 | 3.8% | 4.9% |
| 1982-11 | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| 1982-10 | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| 1982-09 | 5.0% | 6.0% |
| 1982-08 | 5.9% | 6.8% |
| 1982-07 | 6.4% | 7.3% |
| 1982-06 | 7.1% | 7.9% |
| 1982-05 | 6.7% | 7.5% |
| 1982-04 | 6.5% | 7.3% |
| 1982-03 | 6.8% | 7.5% |
| 1982-02 | 7.6% | 8.4% |
| 1982-01 | 8.4% | 9.1% |
| 1981-12 | 8.9% | 9.6% |
| 1981-11 | 9.6% | 10.2% |
| 1981-10 | 10.1% | 10.8% |
| 1981-09 | 11.0% | 11.5% |
| 1981-08 | 10.8% | 11.4% |
| 1981-07 | 10.8% | 11.3% |
| 1981-06 | 9.6% | 10.0% |
| 1981-05 | 9.8% | 10.2% |
| 1981-04 | 10.0% | 10.4% |
| 1981-03 | 10.5% | 10.9% |
| 1981-02 | 11.4% | 11.8% |
| 1981-01 | 11.8% | 12.2% |
| 1980-12 | 12.5% | 12.8% |
| 1980-11 | 12.6% | 12.9% |
| 1980-10 | 12.8% | 13.0% |
| 1980-09 | 12.6% | 12.8% |
| 1980-08 | 12.9% | 13.1% |
| 1980-07 | 13.1% | 13.3% |
| 1980-06 | 14.4% | 14.5% |
| 1980-05 | 14.4% | 14.5% |
| 1980-04 | 14.7% | 14.8% |
| 1980-03 | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| 1980-02 | 14.2% | 14.2% |
| 1980-01 | 13.9% | 13.9% |
ShadowStats applies additive factors to official data rather than recomputing prices (Williams, per Hamilton: “all I’m doing is… using that as an add factor”). The 1980-base add-factor ramps from 0 in 1980 to ~7pp by 2000 and ~8.5pp by 2021, matching documented anchor points (±0.5pp).
Inflation, SGS 1980-base
12.4%
official CPI-U: 3.5%
as of 2026-06
Unemployment, SGS
27.9%
official U-3: 4.2%
as of 2026-06
GDP growth, corrected
-2.3%
official: 2.1%
as of 2026-04
Range
Consumer inflation — official vs SGS alternates
Year-over-year change, CPI-U (NSA) and SGS-style corrected series
Official CPI-USGS 1990-baseSGS 1980-base
Data table
| Date | Official CPI-U | SGS 1990-base | SGS 1980-base |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 3.5% | 7.9% | 12.4% |
| 2026-05 | 4.2% | 8.6% | 13.1% |
| 2026-04 | 3.8% | 8.2% | 12.7% |
| 2026-03 | 3.3% | 7.6% | 12.1% |
| 2026-02 | 2.4% | 6.8% | 11.3% |
| 2026-01 | 2.4% | 6.7% | 11.2% |
| 2025-12 | 2.7% | 7.0% | 11.5% |
| 2025-11 | 2.7% | 7.1% | 11.6% |
| 2025-09 | 3.0% | 7.3% | 11.8% |
| 2025-08 | 2.9% | 7.2% | 11.7% |
| 2025-07 | 2.7% | 7.0% | 11.5% |
| 2025-06 | 2.7% | 7.0% | 11.5% |
| 2025-05 | 2.4% | 6.7% | 11.2% |
| 2025-04 | 2.3% | 6.6% | 11.1% |
| 2025-03 | 2.4% | 6.7% | 11.2% |
| 2025-02 | 2.8% | 7.1% | 11.6% |
| 2025-01 | 3.0% | 7.3% | 11.8% |
| 2024-12 | 2.9% | 7.2% | 11.7% |
| 2024-11 | 2.7% | 7.0% | 11.5% |
| 2024-10 | 2.6% | 6.9% | 11.4% |
| 2024-09 | 2.4% | 6.7% | 11.2% |
| 2024-08 | 2.5% | 6.8% | 11.3% |
| 2024-07 | 2.9% | 7.1% | 11.6% |
| 2024-06 | 3.0% | 7.2% | 11.7% |
| 2024-05 | 3.3% | 7.5% | 12.0% |
| 2024-04 | 3.4% | 7.6% | 12.1% |
| 2024-03 | 3.5% | 7.7% | 12.2% |
| 2024-02 | 3.2% | 7.4% | 11.9% |
| 2024-01 | 3.1% | 7.3% | 11.8% |
| 2023-12 | 3.4% | 7.6% | 12.1% |
| 2023-11 | 3.1% | 7.3% | 11.8% |
| 2023-10 | 3.2% | 7.4% | 11.9% |
| 2023-09 | 3.7% | 7.9% | 12.4% |
| 2023-08 | 3.7% | 7.9% | 12.3% |
| 2023-07 | 3.2% | 7.4% | 11.9% |
| 2023-06 | 3.0% | 7.1% | 11.6% |
| 2023-05 | 4.0% | 8.2% | 12.7% |
| 2023-04 | 4.9% | 9.1% | 13.6% |
| 2023-03 | 5.0% | 9.1% | 13.6% |
| 2023-02 | 6.0% | 10.2% | 14.7% |
| 2023-01 | 6.4% | 10.6% | 15.1% |
| 2022-12 | 6.5% | 10.6% | 15.1% |
| 2022-11 | 7.1% | 11.2% | 15.7% |
| 2022-10 | 7.7% | 11.9% | 16.4% |
| 2022-09 | 8.2% | 12.3% | 16.8% |
| 2022-08 | 8.3% | 12.4% | 16.9% |
| 2022-07 | 8.5% | 12.6% | 17.1% |
| 2022-06 | 9.1% | 13.2% | 17.7% |
| 2022-05 | 8.6% | 12.7% | 17.2% |
| 2022-04 | 8.3% | 12.4% | 16.8% |
| 2022-03 | 8.5% | 12.6% | 17.1% |
| 2022-02 | 7.9% | 12.0% | 16.4% |
| 2022-01 | 7.5% | 11.6% | 16.1% |
| 2021-12 | 7.0% | 11.1% | 15.6% |
| 2021-11 | 6.8% | 10.9% | 15.4% |
| 2021-10 | 6.2% | 10.3% | 14.8% |
| 2021-09 | 5.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% |
| 2021-08 | 5.3% | 9.3% | 13.8% |
| 2021-07 | 5.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% |
| 2021-06 | 5.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% |
| 2021-05 | 5.0% | 9.0% | 13.5% |
| 2021-04 | 4.2% | 8.2% | 12.7% |
| 2021-03 | 2.6% | 6.6% | 11.1% |
| 2021-02 | 1.7% | 5.7% | 10.2% |
| 2021-01 | 1.4% | 5.4% | 9.9% |
| 2020-12 | 1.4% | 5.4% | 9.9% |
| 2020-11 | 1.2% | 5.2% | 9.7% |
| 2020-10 | 1.2% | 5.2% | 9.7% |
| 2020-09 | 1.4% | 5.4% | 9.8% |
| 2020-08 | 1.3% | 5.3% | 9.8% |
| 2020-07 | 1.0% | 5.0% | 9.5% |
| 2020-06 | 0.6% | 4.6% | 9.1% |
| 2020-05 | 0.1% | 4.1% | 8.6% |
| 2020-04 | 0.3% | 4.3% | 8.8% |
| 2020-03 | 1.5% | 5.5% | 10.0% |
| 2020-02 | 2.3% | 6.3% | 10.8% |
| 2020-01 | 2.5% | 6.4% | 10.9% |
| 2019-12 | 2.3% | 6.2% | 10.7% |
| 2019-11 | 2.1% | 6.0% | 10.5% |
| 2019-10 | 1.8% | 5.7% | 10.2% |
| 2019-09 | 1.7% | 5.6% | 10.1% |
| 2019-08 | 1.7% | 5.7% | 10.1% |
| 2019-07 | 1.8% | 5.7% | 10.2% |
| 2019-06 | 1.6% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| 2019-05 | 1.8% | 5.7% | 10.2% |
| 2019-04 | 2.0% | 5.9% | 10.4% |
| 2019-03 | 1.9% | 5.8% | 10.2% |
| 2019-02 | 1.5% | 5.4% | 9.9% |
| 2019-01 | 1.6% | 5.4% | 9.9% |
| 2018-12 | 1.9% | 5.8% | 10.3% |
| 2018-11 | 2.2% | 6.1% | 10.5% |
| 2018-10 | 2.5% | 6.4% | 10.9% |
| 2018-09 | 2.3% | 6.1% | 10.6% |
| 2018-08 | 2.7% | 6.6% | 11.0% |
| 2018-07 | 2.9% | 6.8% | 11.3% |
| 2018-06 | 2.9% | 6.7% | 11.2% |
| 2018-05 | 2.8% | 6.6% | 11.1% |
| 2018-04 | 2.5% | 6.3% | 10.8% |
| 2018-03 | 2.4% | 6.2% | 10.7% |
| 2018-02 | 2.2% | 6.0% | 10.5% |
| 2018-01 | 2.1% | 5.9% | 10.4% |
| 2017-12 | 2.1% | 5.9% | 10.4% |
| 2017-11 | 2.2% | 6.0% | 10.5% |
| 2017-10 | 2.0% | 5.8% | 10.3% |
| 2017-09 | 2.2% | 6.0% | 10.5% |
| 2017-08 | 1.9% | 5.7% | 10.2% |
| 2017-07 | 1.7% | 5.5% | 10.0% |
| 2017-06 | 1.6% | 5.4% | 9.9% |
| 2017-05 | 1.9% | 5.7% | 10.1% |
| 2017-04 | 2.2% | 6.0% | 10.4% |
| 2017-03 | 2.4% | 6.1% | 10.6% |
| 2017-02 | 2.7% | 6.5% | 11.0% |
| 2017-01 | 2.5% | 6.3% | 10.7% |
| 2016-12 | 2.1% | 5.8% | 10.3% |
| 2016-11 | 1.7% | 5.4% | 9.9% |
| 2016-10 | 1.6% | 5.4% | 9.8% |
| 2016-09 | 1.5% | 5.2% | 9.7% |
| 2016-08 | 1.1% | 4.8% | 9.2% |
| 2016-07 | 0.8% | 4.5% | 9.0% |
| 2016-06 | 1.0% | 4.7% | 9.2% |
| 2016-05 | 1.0% | 4.7% | 9.2% |
| 2016-04 | 1.1% | 4.8% | 9.3% |
| 2016-03 | 0.9% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| 2016-02 | 1.0% | 4.7% | 9.2% |
| 2016-01 | 1.4% | 5.1% | 9.5% |
| 2015-12 | 0.7% | 4.4% | 8.9% |
| 2015-11 | 0.5% | 4.2% | 8.6% |
| 2015-10 | 0.2% | 3.8% | 8.3% |
| 2015-09 | -0.0% | 3.6% | 8.1% |
| 2015-08 | 0.2% | 3.9% | 8.3% |
| 2015-07 | 0.2% | 3.8% | 8.3% |
| 2015-06 | 0.1% | 3.8% | 8.2% |
| 2015-05 | -0.0% | 3.6% | 8.1% |
| 2015-04 | -0.2% | 3.4% | 7.9% |
| 2015-03 | -0.1% | 3.6% | 8.0% |
| 2015-02 | -0.0% | 3.6% | 8.1% |
| 2015-01 | -0.1% | 3.5% | 8.0% |
| 2014-12 | 0.8% | 4.4% | 8.8% |
| 2014-11 | 1.3% | 4.9% | 9.4% |
| 2014-10 | 1.7% | 5.3% | 9.7% |
| 2014-09 | 1.7% | 5.3% | 9.7% |
| 2014-08 | 1.7% | 5.3% | 9.7% |
| 2014-07 | 2.0% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| 2014-06 | 2.1% | 5.7% | 10.1% |
| 2014-05 | 2.1% | 5.7% | 10.2% |
| 2014-04 | 2.0% | 5.5% | 10.0% |
| 2014-03 | 1.5% | 5.1% | 9.5% |
| 2014-02 | 1.1% | 4.7% | 9.1% |
| 2014-01 | 1.6% | 5.1% | 9.6% |
| 2013-12 | 1.5% | 5.1% | 9.5% |
| 2013-11 | 1.2% | 4.8% | 9.2% |
| 2013-10 | 1.0% | 4.5% | 8.9% |
| 2013-09 | 1.2% | 4.7% | 9.2% |
| 2013-08 | 1.5% | 5.0% | 9.5% |
| 2013-07 | 2.0% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| 2013-06 | 1.8% | 5.3% | 9.7% |
| 2013-05 | 1.4% | 4.9% | 9.3% |
| 2013-04 | 1.1% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| 2013-03 | 1.5% | 5.0% | 9.4% |
| 2013-02 | 2.0% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| 2013-01 | 1.6% | 5.1% | 9.5% |
| 2012-12 | 1.7% | 5.2% | 9.7% |
| 2012-11 | 1.8% | 5.2% | 9.7% |
| 2012-10 | 2.2% | 5.6% | 10.1% |
| 2012-09 | 2.0% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| 2012-08 | 1.7% | 5.2% | 9.6% |
| 2012-07 | 1.4% | 4.9% | 9.3% |
| 2012-06 | 1.7% | 5.1% | 9.6% |
| 2012-05 | 1.7% | 5.1% | 9.6% |
| 2012-04 | 2.3% | 5.7% | 10.2% |
| 2012-03 | 2.7% | 6.1% | 10.5% |
| 2012-02 | 2.9% | 6.3% | 10.7% |
| 2012-01 | 2.9% | 6.3% | 10.8% |
| 2011-12 | 3.0% | 6.4% | 10.8% |
| 2011-11 | 3.4% | 6.8% | 11.2% |
| 2011-10 | 3.5% | 6.9% | 11.4% |
| 2011-09 | 3.9% | 7.3% | 11.7% |
| 2011-08 | 3.8% | 7.2% | 11.6% |
| 2011-07 | 3.6% | 7.0% | 11.5% |
| 2011-06 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 11.4% |
| 2011-05 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 11.4% |
| 2011-04 | 3.2% | 6.5% | 11.0% |
| 2011-03 | 2.7% | 6.1% | 10.5% |
| 2011-02 | 2.1% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| 2011-01 | 1.6% | 5.0% | 9.4% |
| 2010-12 | 1.5% | 4.8% | 9.3% |
| 2010-11 | 1.1% | 4.5% | 8.9% |
| 2010-10 | 1.2% | 4.5% | 8.9% |
| 2010-09 | 1.1% | 4.5% | 8.9% |
| 2010-08 | 1.1% | 4.5% | 8.9% |
| 2010-07 | 1.2% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| 2010-06 | 1.1% | 4.4% | 8.8% |
| 2010-05 | 2.0% | 5.3% | 9.8% |
| 2010-04 | 2.2% | 5.5% | 10.0% |
| 2010-03 | 2.3% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| 2010-02 | 2.1% | 5.4% | 9.9% |
| 2010-01 | 2.6% | 5.9% | 10.3% |
| 2009-12 | 2.7% | 6.0% | 10.4% |
| 2009-11 | 1.8% | 5.1% | 9.5% |
| 2009-10 | -0.2% | 3.1% | 7.5% |
| 2009-09 | -1.3% | 2.0% | 6.4% |
| 2009-08 | -1.5% | 1.8% | 6.2% |
| 2009-07 | -2.1% | 1.2% | 5.6% |
| 2009-06 | -1.4% | 1.8% | 6.2% |
| 2009-05 | -1.3% | 2.0% | 6.4% |
| 2009-04 | -0.7% | 2.5% | 6.9% |
| 2009-03 | -0.4% | 2.9% | 7.3% |
| 2009-02 | 0.2% | 3.5% | 7.9% |
| 2009-01 | 0.0% | 3.3% | 7.7% |
| 2008-12 | 0.1% | 3.3% | 7.7% |
| 2008-11 | 1.1% | 4.3% | 8.7% |
| 2008-10 | 3.7% | 6.9% | 11.3% |
| 2008-09 | 4.9% | 8.1% | 12.6% |
| 2008-08 | 5.4% | 8.6% | 13.0% |
| 2008-07 | 5.6% | 8.8% | 13.2% |
| 2008-06 | 5.0% | 8.2% | 12.6% |
| 2008-05 | 4.2% | 7.4% | 11.8% |
| 2008-04 | 3.9% | 7.1% | 11.5% |
| 2008-03 | 4.0% | 7.2% | 11.6% |
| 2008-02 | 4.0% | 7.2% | 11.6% |
| 2008-01 | 4.3% | 7.4% | 11.9% |
| 2007-12 | 4.1% | 7.2% | 11.6% |
| 2007-11 | 4.3% | 7.5% | 11.9% |
| 2007-10 | 3.5% | 6.7% | 11.1% |
| 2007-09 | 2.8% | 5.9% | 10.3% |
| 2007-08 | 2.0% | 5.1% | 9.5% |
| 2007-07 | 2.4% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| 2007-06 | 2.7% | 5.8% | 10.2% |
| 2007-05 | 2.7% | 5.8% | 10.2% |
| 2007-04 | 2.6% | 5.7% | 10.1% |
| 2007-03 | 2.8% | 5.9% | 10.3% |
| 2007-02 | 2.4% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| 2007-01 | 2.1% | 5.2% | 9.6% |
| 2006-12 | 2.5% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| 2006-11 | 2.0% | 5.1% | 9.5% |
| 2006-10 | 1.3% | 4.4% | 8.8% |
| 2006-09 | 2.1% | 5.1% | 9.5% |
| 2006-08 | 3.8% | 6.9% | 11.3% |
| 2006-07 | 4.1% | 7.2% | 11.6% |
| 2006-06 | 4.3% | 7.4% | 11.8% |
| 2006-05 | 4.2% | 7.2% | 11.6% |
| 2006-04 | 3.5% | 6.6% | 11.0% |
| 2006-03 | 3.4% | 6.4% | 10.8% |
| 2006-02 | 3.6% | 6.6% | 11.0% |
| 2006-01 | 4.0% | 7.0% | 11.4% |
| 2005-12 | 3.4% | 6.4% | 10.8% |
| 2005-11 | 3.5% | 6.5% | 10.9% |
| 2005-10 | 4.3% | 7.4% | 11.8% |
| 2005-09 | 4.7% | 7.7% | 12.1% |
| 2005-08 | 3.6% | 6.6% | 11.0% |
| 2005-07 | 3.2% | 6.2% | 10.6% |
| 2005-06 | 2.5% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| 2005-05 | 2.8% | 5.8% | 10.2% |
| 2005-04 | 3.5% | 6.5% | 10.9% |
| 2005-03 | 3.1% | 6.1% | 10.5% |
| 2005-02 | 3.0% | 6.0% | 10.4% |
| 2005-01 | 3.0% | 5.9% | 10.3% |
| 2004-12 | 3.3% | 6.2% | 10.6% |
| 2004-11 | 3.5% | 6.5% | 10.9% |
| 2004-10 | 3.2% | 6.1% | 10.5% |
| 2004-09 | 2.5% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| 2004-08 | 2.7% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| 2004-07 | 3.0% | 5.9% | 10.3% |
| 2004-06 | 3.3% | 6.2% | 10.6% |
| 2004-05 | 3.1% | 6.0% | 10.4% |
| 2004-04 | 2.3% | 5.2% | 9.6% |
| 2004-03 | 1.7% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| 2004-02 | 1.7% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| 2004-01 | 1.9% | 4.8% | 9.2% |
| 2003-12 | 1.9% | 4.8% | 9.2% |
| 2003-11 | 1.8% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| 2003-10 | 2.0% | 4.9% | 9.3% |
| 2003-09 | 2.3% | 5.2% | 9.6% |
| 2003-08 | 2.2% | 5.0% | 9.4% |
| 2003-07 | 2.1% | 5.0% | 9.4% |
| 2003-06 | 2.1% | 5.0% | 9.4% |
| 2003-05 | 2.1% | 4.9% | 9.3% |
| 2003-04 | 2.2% | 5.1% | 9.5% |
| 2003-03 | 3.0% | 5.9% | 10.2% |
| 2003-02 | 3.0% | 5.8% | 10.2% |
| 2003-01 | 2.6% | 5.4% | 9.8% |
| 2002-12 | 2.4% | 5.2% | 9.6% |
| 2002-11 | 2.2% | 5.0% | 9.4% |
| 2002-10 | 2.0% | 4.8% | 9.2% |
| 2002-09 | 1.5% | 4.3% | 8.7% |
| 2002-08 | 1.8% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| 2002-07 | 1.5% | 4.3% | 8.6% |
| 2002-06 | 1.1% | 3.9% | 8.2% |
| 2002-05 | 1.2% | 4.0% | 8.3% |
| 2002-04 | 1.6% | 4.4% | 8.8% |
| 2002-03 | 1.5% | 4.3% | 8.6% |
| 2002-02 | 1.1% | 3.9% | 8.3% |
| 2002-01 | 1.1% | 3.9% | 8.3% |
| 2001-12 | 1.6% | 4.3% | 8.7% |
| 2001-11 | 1.9% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| 2001-10 | 2.1% | 4.9% | 9.3% |
| 2001-09 | 2.6% | 5.4% | 9.8% |
| 2001-08 | 2.7% | 5.5% | 9.8% |
| 2001-07 | 2.7% | 5.5% | 9.8% |
| 2001-06 | 3.2% | 6.0% | 10.3% |
ShadowStats applies additive factors to official data rather than recomputing prices (Williams, per Hamilton: “all I’m doing is… using that as an add factor”). The 1990-base series is official CPI-U (NSA) year-over-year plus 1.9pp, drifting up 0.066pp per year from January 1989 — a published fit that tracks the ShadowStats series nearly exactly through 2023. The 1980-base add-factor ramps from 0 in 1980 to ~7pp by 2000 and ~8.5pp by 2021, matching documented anchor points (±0.5pp).
Unemployment — U-3, U-6, and SGS alternate
Official rates plus estimated long-term discouraged workers
Official U-3Official U-6SGS alternate
Data table
| Date | Official U-3 | Official U-6 | SGS alternate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 4.2% | 7.9% | 27.9% |
| 2026-05 | 4.3% | 8.1% | 28.0% |
| 2026-04 | 4.3% | 8.2% | 28.1% |
| 2026-03 | 4.3% | 8.0% | 27.8% |
| 2026-02 | 4.4% | 7.9% | 27.7% |
| 2026-01 | 4.3% | 8.1% | 27.8% |
| 2025-12 | 4.4% | 8.4% | 28.1% |
| 2025-11 | 4.5% | 8.7% | 28.3% |
| 2025-09 | 4.4% | 8.1% | 27.6% |
| 2025-08 | 4.3% | 8.1% | 27.6% |
| 2025-07 | 4.3% | 7.9% | 27.3% |
| 2025-06 | 4.1% | 7.7% | 27.1% |
| 2025-05 | 4.3% | 7.8% | 27.1% |
| 2025-04 | 4.2% | 7.8% | 27.0% |
| 2025-03 | 4.2% | 7.9% | 27.1% |
| 2025-02 | 4.2% | 8.0% | 27.1% |
| 2025-01 | 4.0% | 7.5% | 26.6% |
| 2024-12 | 4.1% | 7.6% | 26.6% |
| 2024-11 | 4.2% | 7.7% | 26.7% |
| 2024-10 | 4.1% | 7.7% | 26.6% |
| 2024-09 | 4.1% | 7.7% | 26.6% |
| 2024-08 | 4.2% | 7.8% | 26.6% |
| 2024-07 | 4.2% | 7.8% | 26.6% |
| 2024-06 | 4.1% | 7.4% | 26.1% |
| 2024-05 | 3.9% | 7.4% | 26.0% |
| 2024-04 | 3.9% | 7.4% | 26.0% |
| 2024-03 | 3.9% | 7.3% | 25.8% |
| 2024-02 | 3.9% | 7.3% | 25.8% |
| 2024-01 | 3.7% | 7.2% | 25.6% |
| 2023-12 | 3.8% | 7.2% | 25.6% |
| 2023-11 | 3.7% | 7.0% | 25.3% |
| 2023-10 | 3.9% | 7.2% | 25.5% |
| 2023-09 | 3.7% | 7.0% | 25.2% |
| 2023-08 | 3.7% | 7.1% | 25.3% |
| 2023-07 | 3.5% | 6.7% | 24.8% |
| 2023-06 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 25.0% |
| 2023-05 | 3.6% | 6.7% | 24.7% |
| 2023-04 | 3.4% | 6.6% | 24.5% |
| 2023-03 | 3.5% | 6.7% | 24.6% |
| 2023-02 | 3.6% | 6.8% | 24.6% |
| 2023-01 | 3.5% | 6.7% | 24.5% |
| 2022-12 | 3.5% | 6.6% | 24.3% |
| 2022-11 | 3.6% | 6.7% | 24.4% |
| 2022-10 | 3.6% | 6.7% | 24.3% |
| 2022-09 | 3.5% | 6.7% | 24.3% |
| 2022-08 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 24.4% |
| 2022-07 | 3.5% | 6.8% | 24.2% |
| 2022-06 | 3.6% | 6.7% | 24.1% |
| 2022-05 | 3.6% | 7.1% | 24.4% |
| 2022-04 | 3.7% | 7.0% | 24.3% |
| 2022-03 | 3.7% | 7.0% | 24.2% |
| 2022-02 | 3.9% | 7.2% | 24.4% |
| 2022-01 | 4.0% | 7.1% | 24.2% |
| 2021-12 | 3.9% | 7.3% | 24.3% |
| 2021-11 | 4.1% | 7.7% | 24.7% |
| 2021-10 | 4.5% | 8.2% | 25.1% |
| 2021-09 | 4.7% | 8.4% | 25.3% |
| 2021-08 | 5.1% | 8.8% | 25.6% |
| 2021-07 | 5.4% | 9.2% | 26.0% |
| 2021-06 | 5.9% | 9.8% | 26.5% |
| 2021-05 | 5.8% | 10.1% | 26.8% |
| 2021-04 | 6.1% | 10.3% | 26.9% |
| 2021-03 | 6.1% | 10.8% | 27.3% |
| 2021-02 | 6.2% | 11.1% | 27.6% |
| 2021-01 | 6.4% | 11.2% | 27.6% |
| 2020-12 | 6.7% | 11.7% | 28.1% |
| 2020-11 | 6.7% | 11.9% | 28.2% |
| 2020-10 | 6.9% | 12.1% | 28.4% |
| 2020-09 | 7.8% | 12.8% | 29.0% |
| 2020-08 | 8.4% | 14.2% | 30.4% |
| 2020-07 | 10.2% | 16.5% | 32.6% |
| 2020-06 | 11.0% | 18.0% | 34.0% |
| 2020-05 | 13.2% | 21.1% | 37.1% |
| 2020-04 | 14.8% | 22.9% | 38.8% |
| 2020-03 | 4.4% | 8.8% | 24.7% |
| 2020-02 | 3.5% | 7.0% | 22.8% |
| 2020-01 | 3.6% | 7.0% | 22.8% |
| 2019-12 | 3.6% | 6.8% | 22.5% |
| 2019-11 | 3.6% | 6.8% | 22.4% |
| 2019-10 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 22.5% |
| 2019-09 | 3.5% | 6.9% | 22.4% |
| 2019-08 | 3.6% | 7.2% | 22.7% |
| 2019-07 | 3.7% | 6.9% | 22.3% |
| 2019-06 | 3.6% | 7.2% | 22.6% |
| 2019-05 | 3.6% | 7.1% | 22.4% |
| 2019-04 | 3.7% | 7.4% | 22.7% |
| 2019-03 | 3.8% | 7.4% | 22.6% |
| 2019-02 | 3.8% | 7.2% | 22.3% |
| 2019-01 | 4.0% | 8.0% | 23.1% |
| 2018-12 | 3.9% | 7.6% | 22.6% |
| 2018-11 | 3.8% | 7.6% | 22.6% |
| 2018-10 | 3.8% | 7.5% | 22.4% |
| 2018-09 | 3.7% | 7.5% | 22.4% |
| 2018-08 | 3.8% | 7.4% | 22.2% |
| 2018-07 | 3.8% | 7.5% | 22.3% |
| 2018-06 | 4.0% | 7.8% | 22.5% |
| 2018-05 | 3.8% | 7.8% | 22.4% |
| 2018-04 | 4.0% | 7.9% | 22.5% |
| 2018-03 | 4.0% | 8.0% | 22.5% |
| 2018-02 | 4.1% | 8.1% | 22.6% |
| 2018-01 | 4.0% | 8.0% | 22.4% |
| 2017-12 | 4.1% | 8.1% | 22.5% |
| 2017-11 | 4.2% | 8.0% | 22.3% |
| 2017-10 | 4.2% | 8.1% | 22.4% |
| 2017-09 | 4.3% | 8.3% | 22.5% |
| 2017-08 | 4.4% | 8.6% | 22.7% |
| 2017-07 | 4.3% | 8.5% | 22.6% |
| 2017-06 | 4.3% | 8.5% | 22.5% |
| 2017-05 | 4.4% | 8.5% | 22.5% |
| 2017-04 | 4.4% | 8.6% | 22.5% |
| 2017-03 | 4.4% | 8.8% | 22.7% |
| 2017-02 | 4.6% | 9.0% | 22.8% |
| 2017-01 | 4.7% | 9.2% | 22.9% |
| 2016-12 | 4.7% | 9.2% | 22.9% |
| 2016-11 | 4.7% | 9.4% | 23.0% |
| 2016-10 | 4.9% | 9.6% | 23.2% |
| 2016-09 | 5.0% | 9.7% | 23.2% |
| 2016-08 | 4.9% | 9.6% | 23.1% |
| 2016-07 | 4.8% | 9.6% | 23.0% |
| 2016-06 | 4.9% | 9.5% | 22.9% |
| 2016-05 | 4.8% | 9.9% | 23.2% |
| 2016-04 | 5.1% | 9.9% | 23.1% |
| 2016-03 | 5.0% | 9.8% | 22.9% |
| 2016-02 | 4.9% | 9.6% | 22.6% |
| 2016-01 | 4.8% | 9.7% | 22.6% |
| 2015-12 | 5.0% | 9.9% | 22.7% |
| 2015-11 | 5.1% | 10.0% | 22.7% |
| 2015-10 | 5.0% | 9.8% | 22.4% |
| 2015-09 | 5.0% | 10.0% | 22.4% |
| 2015-08 | 5.1% | 10.2% | 22.5% |
| 2015-07 | 5.2% | 10.3% | 22.5% |
| 2015-06 | 5.3% | 10.4% | 22.5% |
| 2015-05 | 5.6% | 10.9% | 22.9% |
| 2015-04 | 5.4% | 10.9% | 22.8% |
| 2015-03 | 5.4% | 10.9% | 22.7% |
| 2015-02 | 5.5% | 10.9% | 22.6% |
| 2015-01 | 5.7% | 11.2% | 22.8% |
| 2014-12 | 5.6% | 11.2% | 22.7% |
| 2014-11 | 5.8% | 11.4% | 22.8% |
| 2014-10 | 5.7% | 11.5% | 22.8% |
| 2014-09 | 5.9% | 11.7% | 22.9% |
| 2014-08 | 6.1% | 12.0% | 23.1% |
| 2014-07 | 6.2% | 12.1% | 23.0% |
| 2014-06 | 6.1% | 12.0% | 22.8% |
| 2014-05 | 6.3% | 12.3% | 23.0% |
| 2014-04 | 6.2% | 12.3% | 22.9% |
| 2014-03 | 6.7% | 12.7% | 23.2% |
| 2014-02 | 6.7% | 12.6% | 23.0% |
| 2014-01 | 6.6% | 12.6% | 22.9% |
| 2013-12 | 6.7% | 13.1% | 23.3% |
| 2013-11 | 6.9% | 13.1% | 23.2% |
| 2013-10 | 7.2% | 13.6% | 23.6% |
| 2013-09 | 7.2% | 13.5% | 23.4% |
| 2013-08 | 7.2% | 13.6% | 23.4% |
| 2013-07 | 7.3% | 13.8% | 23.6% |
| 2013-06 | 7.5% | 14.2% | 23.9% |
| 2013-05 | 7.5% | 13.9% | 23.5% |
| 2013-04 | 7.6% | 14.0% | 23.5% |
| 2013-03 | 7.5% | 13.9% | 23.3% |
| 2013-02 | 7.7% | 14.3% | 23.6% |
| 2013-01 | 8.0% | 14.5% | 23.7% |
| 2012-12 | 7.9% | 14.4% | 23.5% |
| 2012-11 | 7.7% | 14.4% | 23.5% |
| 2012-10 | 7.8% | 14.4% | 23.4% |
| 2012-09 | 7.8% | 14.8% | 23.7% |
| 2012-08 | 8.1% | 14.6% | 23.4% |
| 2012-07 | 8.2% | 14.7% | 23.4% |
| 2012-06 | 8.2% | 14.7% | 23.3% |
| 2012-05 | 8.2% | 14.8% | 23.3% |
| 2012-04 | 8.2% | 14.7% | 23.1% |
| 2012-03 | 8.2% | 14.6% | 23.0% |
| 2012-02 | 8.3% | 15.0% | 23.3% |
| 2012-01 | 8.3% | 15.1% | 23.3% |
| 2011-12 | 8.5% | 15.2% | 23.3% |
| 2011-11 | 8.6% | 15.6% | 23.6% |
| 2011-10 | 8.8% | 15.8% | 23.7% |
| 2011-09 | 9.0% | 16.4% | 24.2% |
| 2011-08 | 9.0% | 16.1% | 23.8% |
| 2011-07 | 9.0% | 15.9% | 23.6% |
| 2011-06 | 9.1% | 16.1% | 23.7% |
| 2011-05 | 9.0% | 15.9% | 23.4% |
| 2011-04 | 9.1% | 16.1% | 23.5% |
| 2011-03 | 9.0% | 16.0% | 23.3% |
| 2011-02 | 9.0% | 16.0% | 23.2% |
| 2011-01 | 9.1% | 16.1% | 23.2% |
| 2010-12 | 9.3% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| 2010-11 | 9.8% | 16.9% | 23.8% |
| 2010-10 | 9.4% | 16.6% | 23.5% |
| 2010-09 | 9.5% | 16.9% | 23.7% |
| 2010-08 | 9.5% | 16.5% | 23.2% |
| 2010-07 | 9.4% | 16.4% | 23.0% |
| 2010-06 | 9.4% | 16.4% | 22.9% |
| 2010-05 | 9.6% | 16.7% | 23.1% |
| 2010-04 | 9.9% | 17.2% | 23.5% |
| 2010-03 | 9.9% | 17.1% | 23.3% |
| 2010-02 | 9.8% | 17.0% | 23.2% |
| 2010-01 | 9.8% | 16.6% | 22.7% |
| 2009-12 | 9.9% | 17.2% | 23.2% |
| 2009-11 | 9.9% | 17.1% | 23.0% |
| 2009-10 | 10.0% | 17.1% | 22.9% |
| 2009-09 | 9.8% | 16.7% | 22.4% |
| 2009-08 | 9.6% | 16.7% | 22.3% |
| 2009-07 | 9.5% | 16.4% | 21.9% |
| 2009-06 | 9.5% | 16.5% | 22.0% |
| 2009-05 | 9.4% | 16.5% | 21.9% |
| 2009-04 | 9.0% | 15.9% | 21.2% |
| 2009-03 | 8.7% | 15.8% | 21.0% |
| 2009-02 | 8.3% | 15.1% | 20.2% |
| 2009-01 | 7.8% | 14.1% | 19.1% |
| 2008-12 | 7.3% | 13.6% | 18.5% |
| 2008-11 | 6.8% | 12.7% | 17.5% |
| 2008-10 | 6.5% | 11.8% | 16.6% |
| 2008-09 | 6.1% | 11.1% | 15.8% |
| 2008-08 | 6.1% | 10.8% | 15.4% |
| 2008-07 | 5.8% | 10.5% | 15.0% |
| 2008-06 | 5.6% | 10.0% | 14.4% |
| 2008-05 | 5.4% | 9.7% | 14.1% |
| 2008-04 | 5.0% | 9.2% | 13.6% |
| 2008-03 | 5.1% | 9.1% | 13.5% |
| 2008-02 | 4.9% | 9.0% | 13.4% |
| 2008-01 | 5.0% | 9.1% | 13.5% |
| 2007-12 | 5.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% |
| 2007-11 | 4.7% | 8.5% | 12.9% |
| 2007-10 | 4.7% | 8.4% | 12.7% |
| 2007-09 | 4.7% | 8.4% | 12.7% |
| 2007-08 | 4.6% | 8.4% | 12.7% |
| 2007-07 | 4.7% | 8.4% | 12.7% |
| 2007-06 | 4.6% | 8.3% | 12.6% |
| 2007-05 | 4.4% | 8.2% | 12.5% |
| 2007-04 | 4.5% | 8.2% | 12.5% |
| 2007-03 | 4.4% | 8.0% | 12.3% |
| 2007-02 | 4.5% | 8.1% | 12.4% |
| 2007-01 | 4.6% | 8.3% | 12.6% |
| 2006-12 | 4.4% | 7.9% | 12.2% |
| 2006-11 | 4.5% | 8.1% | 12.4% |
| 2006-10 | 4.4% | 8.2% | 12.5% |
| 2006-09 | 4.5% | 8.0% | 12.3% |
| 2006-08 | 4.7% | 8.4% | 12.6% |
| 2006-07 | 4.7% | 8.5% | 12.7% |
| 2006-06 | 4.6% | 8.4% | 12.6% |
| 2006-05 | 4.6% | 8.2% | 12.4% |
| 2006-04 | 4.7% | 8.1% | 12.3% |
| 2006-03 | 4.7% | 8.2% | 12.4% |
| 2006-02 | 4.8% | 8.4% | 12.6% |
| 2006-01 | 4.7% | 8.4% | 12.6% |
| 2005-12 | 4.9% | 8.6% | 12.8% |
| 2005-11 | 5.0% | 8.7% | 12.9% |
| 2005-10 | 5.0% | 8.7% | 12.9% |
| 2005-09 | 5.0% | 9.0% | 13.2% |
| 2005-08 | 4.9% | 8.9% | 13.1% |
| 2005-07 | 5.0% | 8.8% | 13.0% |
| 2005-06 | 5.0% | 9.0% | 13.2% |
| 2005-05 | 5.1% | 8.9% | 13.0% |
| 2005-04 | 5.2% | 9.0% | 13.1% |
| 2005-03 | 5.2% | 9.1% | 13.2% |
| 2005-02 | 5.4% | 9.2% | 13.3% |
| 2005-01 | 5.3% | 9.2% | 13.3% |
| 2004-12 | 5.4% | 9.3% | 13.4% |
| 2004-11 | 5.4% | 9.4% | 13.5% |
| 2004-10 | 5.5% | 9.7% | 13.8% |
| 2004-09 | 5.4% | 9.4% | 13.5% |
| 2004-08 | 5.4% | 9.4% | 13.5% |
| 2004-07 | 5.5% | 9.5% | 13.6% |
| 2004-06 | 5.6% | 9.6% | 13.7% |
| 2004-05 | 5.6% | 9.7% | 13.8% |
| 2004-04 | 5.6% | 9.6% | 13.7% |
| 2004-03 | 5.8% | 10.0% | 14.0% |
| 2004-02 | 5.6% | 9.7% | 13.7% |
| 2004-01 | 5.7% | 9.8% | 13.8% |
| 2003-12 | 5.7% | 9.8% | 13.8% |
| 2003-11 | 5.8% | 10.1% | 14.1% |
| 2003-10 | 6.0% | 10.2% | 14.2% |
| 2003-09 | 6.1% | 10.4% | 14.4% |
| 2003-08 | 6.1% | 10.1% | 14.1% |
| 2003-07 | 6.2% | 10.3% | 14.3% |
| 2003-06 | 6.3% | 10.3% | 14.3% |
| 2003-05 | 6.1% | 10.1% | 14.1% |
| 2003-04 | 6.0% | 10.2% | 14.2% |
| 2003-03 | 5.9% | 10.0% | 14.0% |
| 2003-02 | 5.9% | 10.1% | 14.1% |
| 2003-01 | 5.8% | 9.9% | 13.8% |
| 2002-12 | 6.0% | 9.8% | 13.7% |
| 2002-11 | 5.9% | 9.8% | 13.7% |
| 2002-10 | 5.7% | 9.6% | 13.5% |
| 2002-09 | 5.7% | 9.6% | 13.5% |
| 2002-08 | 5.7% | 9.6% | 13.5% |
| 2002-07 | 5.8% | 9.6% | 13.5% |
| 2002-06 | 5.8% | 9.5% | 13.4% |
| 2002-05 | 5.8% | 9.6% | 13.5% |
| 2002-04 | 5.9% | 9.7% | 13.6% |
| 2002-03 | 5.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% |
| 2002-02 | 5.7% | 9.5% | 13.4% |
| 2002-01 | 5.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% |
| 2001-12 | 5.7% | 9.6% | 13.5% |
| 2001-11 | 5.5% | 9.4% | 13.3% |
| 2001-10 | 5.3% | 9.3% | 13.1% |
| 2001-09 | 5.0% | 8.7% | 12.5% |
| 2001-08 | 4.9% | 8.2% | 12.0% |
| 2001-07 | 4.6% | 7.9% | 11.7% |
| 2001-06 | 4.5% | 7.9% | 11.7% |
The SGS alternate is BLS U-6 (unemployed + marginally attached + involuntary part-time) plus an estimate of long-term discouraged workers excluded by the 1994 CPS redesign. Williams’ model is proprietary; this wedge interpolates his documented published gaps — ~3.2pp at the 1994 redesign, ~4.4pp in 2008, 10.2pp in 2013, 13.3pp in 2016, 18.0pp in May 2023 — extrapolated at +0.65pp/yr. Note: BLS’s own longitudinal data implies a stock of ~0.2M long-term discouraged workers, not the ~40M this wedge embeds.
Real GDP growth — official vs corrected-inflation
Year-over-year change in real GDP
Official real GDPSGS corrected
Data table
| Date | Official real GDP | SGS corrected |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2.1% | -2.3% |
| 2026-01 | 2.7% | -1.7% |
| 2025-10 | 2.0% | -2.4% |
| 2025-07 | 2.3% | -2.1% |
| 2025-04 | 2.1% | -2.3% |
| 2025-01 | 2.0% | -2.4% |
| 2024-10 | 2.4% | -2.0% |
| 2024-07 | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 2024-04 | 3.1% | -1.3% |
| 2024-01 | 2.9% | -1.5% |
| 2023-10 | 3.4% | -0.9% |
| 2023-07 | 3.2% | -1.1% |
| 2023-04 | 2.8% | -1.5% |
| 2023-01 | 2.3% | -2.0% |
| 2022-10 | 1.3% | -3.0% |
| 2022-07 | 2.3% | -2.0% |
| 2022-04 | 2.5% | -1.8% |
| 2022-01 | 4.0% | -0.3% |
| 2021-10 | 5.8% | 1.5% |
| 2021-07 | 5.2% | 0.9% |
| 2021-04 | 12.4% | 8.1% |
| 2021-01 | 1.8% | -2.5% |
| 2020-10 | -0.9% | -5.1% |
| 2020-07 | -1.4% | -5.6% |
| 2020-04 | -7.4% | -11.6% |
| 2020-01 | 1.4% | -2.8% |
| 2019-10 | 3.4% | -0.8% |
| 2019-07 | 2.8% | -1.4% |
| 2019-04 | 2.2% | -2.0% |
| 2019-01 | 1.9% | -2.3% |
| 2018-10 | 2.1% | -2.1% |
| 2018-07 | 3.1% | -1.1% |
| 2018-04 | 3.3% | -0.9% |
| 2018-01 | 3.3% | -0.8% |
| 2017-10 | 3.0% | -1.1% |
| 2017-07 | 2.4% | -1.7% |
| 2017-04 | 2.3% | -1.8% |
| 2017-01 | 2.1% | -2.0% |
| 2016-10 | 2.2% | -1.9% |
| 2016-07 | 1.8% | -2.3% |
| 2016-04 | 1.5% | -2.6% |
| 2016-01 | 1.8% | -2.3% |
| 2015-10 | 2.1% | -2.0% |
| 2015-07 | 2.4% | -1.7% |
| 2015-04 | 3.3% | -0.7% |
| 2015-01 | 4.0% | -0.0% |
| 2014-10 | 2.7% | -1.3% |
| 2014-07 | 3.1% | -0.9% |
| 2014-04 | 2.7% | -1.3% |
| 2014-01 | 1.7% | -2.3% |
| 2013-10 | 3.0% | -1.0% |
| 2013-07 | 2.2% | -1.8% |
| 2013-04 | 1.5% | -2.5% |
| 2013-01 | 1.7% | -2.3% |
| 2012-10 | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 2012-07 | 2.6% | -1.3% |
| 2012-04 | 2.4% | -1.5% |
| 2012-01 | 2.6% | -1.3% |
| 2011-10 | 1.5% | -2.4% |
| 2011-07 | 0.9% | -3.0% |
| 2011-04 | 1.7% | -2.2% |
| 2011-01 | 2.0% | -1.9% |
| 2010-10 | 2.8% | -1.1% |
| 2010-07 | 3.3% | -0.6% |
| 2010-04 | 2.9% | -1.0% |
| 2010-01 | 1.7% | -2.2% |
| 2009-10 | 0.1% | -3.7% |
| 2009-07 | -3.1% | -6.9% |
| 2009-04 | -4.0% | -7.8% |
| 2009-01 | -3.2% | -7.0% |
| 2008-10 | -2.5% | -6.3% |
| 2008-07 | 0.3% | -3.5% |
| 2008-04 | 1.4% | -2.4% |
| 2008-01 | 1.4% | -2.4% |
| 2007-10 | 2.1% | -1.7% |
| 2007-07 | 2.4% | -1.4% |
| 2007-04 | 1.9% | -1.9% |
| 2007-01 | 1.6% | -2.1% |
| 2006-10 | 2.6% | -1.1% |
| 2006-07 | 2.3% | -1.4% |
| 2006-04 | 3.0% | -0.7% |
| 2006-01 | 3.2% | -0.5% |
| 2005-10 | 3.0% | -0.7% |
| 2005-07 | 3.4% | -0.3% |
| 2005-04 | 3.6% | -0.1% |
| 2005-01 | 3.9% | 0.2% |
| 2004-10 | 3.4% | -0.3% |
| 2004-07 | 3.5% | -0.2% |
| 2004-04 | 4.2% | 0.5% |
| 2004-01 | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| 2003-10 | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| 2003-07 | 3.2% | -0.4% |
| 2003-04 | 2.0% | -1.6% |
| 2003-01 | 1.7% | -1.9% |
| 2002-10 | 2.0% | -1.6% |
| 2002-07 | 2.1% | -1.5% |
| 2002-04 | 1.3% | -2.3% |
| 2002-01 | 1.3% | -2.3% |
| 2001-10 | 0.2% | -3.4% |
| 2001-07 | 0.5% | -3.1% |
| 2001-04 | 1.0% | -2.5% |
Official real GDP growth minus a deflator-understatement correction. ShadowStats publishes no formula; its charts run 2–4.5pp below official growth — roughly half the 1980-base CPI add-factor, which is the model used here (±1pp). Williams’ 2019 “corrected-inflation” tables used a flat ~2pp subtraction.